Still Challenging Times?
Steel Demand Forecast 2030
The European steel industry continues to face significant challenges, as our updated steel demand forecast reveals. The year 2025 was marked by geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and weak economic performance in Europe, while the transition toward climate neutrality adds further complexity and financial strain. Although the global economy appears to be recovering somewhat, Europe’s growth remains sluggish. One year after our last forecast, we take stock and present an update on global and regional steel demand.
We begin by reviewing the accuracy of our model by comparing projections with actual figures. We then update our forecasts for global steel demand through 2030 and for the key sales regions of the European steel industry. Finally, we assess the growth prospects of the major steel-consuming sectors to refine short-term expectations.
Review of last year´s forecast
At the core of our forecast is the “apparent steel use” (ASU) for “finished products,” which serves as a measure of actual steel demand. To validate our model, we compare last year’s forecast with the actual figures for 2023 (source: worldsteel). Figure 1 shows that our projection for North America was highly accurate, with a deviation of just 1.7%. In Europe, actual values for Eastern and Western Europe deviated by 4.4% and 14.4%, respectively—still within the confidence interval, though further from the expected value.
The primary drivers of these discrepancies were geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, trade conflicts with the US, and Europe’s weak economic performance. This review confirms that our model is well-suited for long-term steel demand forecasting. But how will the relevant markets develop in the coming years? Our current steel demand update addresses this question.
Updated forecast to 2030
Global
The updated forecast model indicates a steady deceleration in global steel consumption growth (see Figure 2), with demand reaching 2.06 billion tons by 2030. Our calculation projects a range of 1.97 to 2.15 billion tons. Compared to 2024, this represents an increase of approximately 18%; relative to the historic peak in 2021, it is still an increase of about 12%.
However, since 2021, a negative trend and deviation from the long-term trajectory have been observed—triggered by weak growth in China, the war in Ukraine, trade disputes, and shifts in global supply chains following the COVID-19 pandemic. We have accounted for this short-term development in Figure 3, which illustrates the gap between the long-term growth trajectory and a simple extrapolation of the current downward trend from 2022 to 2024.
If this negative trend continues, actual consumption will fall far below the previous growth path. In our assessment, China will not act as a growth driver in the short term, as the country is experiencing a period of weak growth. While other regions—particularly India—are gaining importance and ongoing industrialization in emerging and developing countries is positively influencing steel demand, global demand will not reach the previously forecast long-term growth trajectory without China returning to its former level. With steel consumption of around 900 million tons, China currently accounts for about 50% of global steel demand—approximately 100 million tons below the 2021 level, a decline that other countries can hardly compensate for in the short term.
Although history has shown that steel demand, despite short-term fluctuations, has always returned to the long-term trend, the current global market offers very few growth opportunities for European steel companies. The strategic relevance for European steel sales therefore lies primarily in developments in Europe and North America, which we examine in more detail below.
Europe
In our previous forecast, we analyzed Europe by separating Eastern and Western regions, with demand in Eastern Europe heavily influenced by consumption in Russia (about 50%). Due to sanctions, Russian steel demand is currently of little relevance to European companies. We have also excluded Ukraine from our analysis due to the ongoing conflict. This year, we combine our previous “EU-East” and “EU-West” models, and our forecast for Europe now includes the EU27 countries, as well as Norway, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Turkey.
We expect Europe to see a largely stagnant long-term trend, with steel demand reaching approximately 192 million tons by 2030 (see Figure 4). Compared to 2021, the highest value of this decade, this represents a decrease of about 7%; however, relative to the weak year of 2024, it reflects growth of around 5%. Our model projects a range of 170 to 220 million tons for 2030, reflecting the significant fluctuations in steel demand over the past 25 years.
This leads to two key strategic guidelines for the European steel industry:
- No structural growth in steel demand is expected in Europe by 2030; however, a moderate recovery of around 5% is forecast compared to the weak year of 2024.
- Future fluctuations in steel demand of approximately ±10% should be anticipated.
To refine the short-term outlook and narrow the forecast range, we examine the key steel-consuming sectors in Europe (see Figure 5).
Our expectations for these sectors over the next 1–2 years present a mixed picture: The automotive industry is shrinking and reducing capacity in Europe, so no growth is expected in this sector in the short term. However, we anticipate growth in the other major steel-consuming sectors—construction, mechanical engineering, and metalware (see definitions in the appendix)—driven by infrastructure programs, housing development, and the expansion of renewable energy. This growth will slightly overcompensate for the losses in steel demand from the automotive sector. Political initiatives at the national and European levels play a central role here.
The short-term development in key sectors confirms the forecast of a moderate recovery in European steel demand compared to 2024 and a return to the long-term trend. However, no significant surges are expected in the next 1–2 years, and the levels of the strong years 2017, 2018, and 2021 (around 205 million tons) remain out of reach in the short term.
North America
The analysis for North America has shown stagnation with a slight downward trend in steel consumption for two decades. Unlike Europe, consumption in recent years (2021–2024) has been above the long-term trend.
According to our forecast model, we expect North American steel demand to reach around 131 million tons by 2030 (see Figure 6).
Compared to 2021, the highest value of this decade for North America, this represents a decrease of about 8%, and a reduction of around 3% compared to 2024. The forecast range is between 109 and 153 million tons.
For European steel companies, the strategic guidelines for North America are essentially the same as for the European market:
- No structural growth in steel demand is expected in North America by 2030; in fact, a reduction of around 3% is forecast compared to 2024.
- Future fluctuations in North American steel demand of approximately ±15% should be anticipated.
An additional uncertainty for European companies is US tariff policy, which further complicates market access and effectively shields the market.
For North America, a closer look at the key sectors also helps refine short-term expectations: The sectoral breakdown is similar to Europe’s (see Figure 7), with a slightly stronger construction and automotive industry and correspondingly lower volumes in mechanical engineering.
The USA accounts for 70% of steel demand in North America. Current government initiatives such as “America first” and investment packages in traditional industries (“Old Economy”) are having a positive impact on the key steel-consuming sectors. Therefore, steel consumption in the next 1–2 years is expected to remain above the long-term trend. This short-term development is politically driven but does not represent a structural change, so our long-term forecast remains valid.
Conclusion
The outlook for the European steel industry remains challenging. Global demand is weak and offers no growth potential for European steel companies through 2030. Europe and North America, as the main sales regions, also provide no significant market growth. The result will be increasing competitive intensity and further pressure on costs.
Efficiency and cost advantages are essential in these times to maintain and gain market share, both regionally and internationally. Flexibility is also crucial to quickly capitalize on opportunities arising from changes in volume and portfolio. Achieving both success factors requires far-reaching changes in all company processes directly and indirectly involved in value creation. This includes sales, procurement, production, HR, and controlling.
For information on our services to support change processes, efficiency programs, or data-driven analyses for decision-making, please contact us at info@bronk-company.com.
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Dr. Jan Hecht,
Manager
Benedikt Schmidt,
Senior Manager
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